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Peter Elston

"Saving on a monthly basis provides the potential for capital growth and can be more effective than lump sum investments thanks to dollar cost averaging."

Peter Elston
Strategist – Asia
Aberdeen Asset Management

Monthly Investment Plan

A monthly investment plan may just be the investment strategy investors need to benefit from a turbulent market.


With stock markets plummeting over the last year and a half and the fear of losing our job hanging over us, how is it possible to think about investing right now? Equity markets have more than halved. What is to stop them halving again? There is no doubt that we are experiencing one of the worst bear markets in history and it may well continue for a little longer. But there is one thing that you can be absolutely certain of: this bear market, like all others before it, will end.

And when it ends, you will not want all your savings to be in the bank. Like many investors before you, you could end up missing the first phase of the stock market recovery, a phase that is usually both swift and substantial. You may tell yourself that you're happy to wait. And that's a natural reaction given the severity of this bear market, which has sent us all running for cover. But missing out on this phase could significantly affect your long-term investment returns. The trick is to ignore market volatility and maintain some stock market exposure in a disciplined, relatively stress-free way.

Which is where the MIP (Monthly Investment Plan) comes in. By feeding money into the market at monthly intervals the MIP allows one to build positions gradually. If markets stay soft, well, the more your money will buy at any given time; and if they go up, then your purchasing power goes down but the overall value of your portfolio increases. The great thing about an MIP is the control it offers. You fix the amount you want to invest; you decide where you want to invest; and you can stop* and re-start the plan at any time. It's not a magic solution but it can help you avoid a lot of the investment mistakes that we are all prone to. Now read on…!

*The minimum initial investment and holding period differ with each distributor.

Dollar Cost Averaging

Broadly speaking, there are two types of investing: systematic and non-systematic. The first is a methodical approach and does not rely on one's emotions or gut feelings. You put a fixed amount into the fund every month, regardless of market behaviour and the price of units. If the price of the fund goes down, you buy more units; if it goes up, you buy fewer units.

Lump sum investment approach Dollar cost averaging approach
Value ($) Unit cost ($) No. of units Monthly Value ($) Unit cost ($) No. of units
1,000 1.00 1,000 250 1.00 250
250 0.5 500
250 1.00 250
250 2.00 125
Total sum
1,000
Unit cost
1.00
Total no. of units
1,000
Total sum
1,000
Avg. unit cost
0.89
Total no. of units
1,125

When Emotion Rules

For the 20 Year Period
(1/1/88 - 12/31/07)

chart

 

Each year Dalbar, Inc. publishes an analysis of the effect on performance of investors' buying and selling of US mutual funds. Although the numbers vary from year to year the message remains the same: the average investor earns significantly less than mutual fund performance would suggest.

Why is this? The answer lies in market timing. We all flatter ourselves that we can spot the right moment to enter or exit the market. In practice, luck, mostly bad, plays as much a part as skill. Indeed, while the age-old advice to buy low and sell high is simple and obvious, our very unsystematic behaviour leads many of us to do the opposite. Dalbar shows that over the 20 years ended 31 December 2007, the average equity fund investor would have earned an annualised return of just 4.5%, underperforming the S&P 500 by more than seven percentage points per year!

Furthermore, $10,000 invested in equity funds in proportion to actual flows would have earned just $14,011, compared to $21,036 from a systematic approach that spread the $10,000 investment evenly over the 240 months (see chart). So your best course of action is to invest regularly and stay invested.
Source: Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour; 2008 Dalbar, Inc

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The above is strictly for information purposes only and should not be considered an offer, or solicitation, to deal in any of the mentioned funds. Investment involves risk, emerging markets may have greater risk than developed markets. Subscriptions may only be made on the basis of the relevant offering documents, most recent annual financial statement and semi-annual financial statements if published thereafter. The value of investments and the income received from them (if any) may be volatile and could change substantially within a short period of time. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The investment returns are denominated in the base currency of the fund. US dollar / HK dollar based investors are therefore exposed to fluctuations in the US dollar / HK dollar / base currency exchange rate.

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